On The Strait of Hormuz and The Price of Oil

 Let's begin with the basics and an explanation of global commodities. A global commodity is a product or substance so universally consumed across the globe that more or less consumption of that product or substance in any market anywhere on the planet economically effects the demand, and therefore the price of that product or substance across all markets, globally. Its simply the laws of supply and demand on a global scale.

Petroleum is a global commodity.

Literally, every single economy and market in the world, at some level or another, relies on the consumption of petroleum. Oil, to this day in spite of all the alternative energy sources being utilized, is what the world runs on. Oil supplies 34% of all the world's energy. It is the largest single source of energy in the world. Of all the electricity, heat, and motive energy produced across the globe, oil supplies more than a third. 

And here's the problem:

If your local power plant fires its generators with oil, and the people that work there drive cars that run on gas, then they must compete with the people in Mogadishu that do the same thing to obtain them. If Mogadishu is willing to pay more and adjust for economies of scale, then they get first dibs. The entities that produce the oil and gasoline, from pumping out of the ground to putting it in your tank, all have a profit-based motivation to sell as high as the market will allow. This is capitalism at its finest. And its worked, for the most part, for about 150 years. Sure, there have been fluctuations and inflation, but energy prices have been way steadier than the stock market ever was. For the most part, as George Will would say, markets work.

But now take away 20% of that oil supply in literally a day. 20% of the substance that provides 34% of all the world's energy. It introduces scarcity into the market. You still need fuel in your car to get to work, but less of that fuel is available in the market. So, in order for you to get that gas for your car, you have to pay what literally everybody else in the world is willing to pay, or more depending on variable costs; transportation, storage, labor, etc. And they want to get to work as badly as you do.

Now some little known US-based oil facts. The United States is the largest single country oil producer in the world. We pump and process more petroleum than any other country. And what we don't produce for ourselves, we buy from...ready for it?....Canada. There is not now, nor has there ever been an "oil shortage." Production levels are carefully controlled to keep the market steady. This is the sole reason OPEC exists. There is more oil than we can use in 100 years still in the ground. 

The problem is, its not universally distributed and refineries are not (totally) globally situated. Most Middle Eastern countries export their petroleum and import its products. Nor are the reserves universally situated. The Unites States produces more oil than any other country, but the State's reserves pale in comparison to those of Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar.

So while we could, conceivably, replace the oil that is NOT coming through the Straits of Hormuz, we would still need to be able to transport it to where it can be used. And...we didn't have a plan for that. Saudi Arabia alone can produce most of the shortfall almost instantaneously. But their oil, for the most part, goes through the Straits of Hormuz. The US can increase production to lighten the blow, and with West Texas crude at $96/barrel, you can bet that's happening. But again, we do not have the infrastructure to transport and refine that much oil.  And building that would take decades.

And if you're thinking that we could produce and refine all the oil the U.S needs domestically, you're right, we could. But remember, oil is a global commodity. The same companies that sell it to you sell it in Mogadishu. Exxon/Mobil isn't going to limit its profits by selling at less than market. And its probably a good thing, unless you like $12/gal gasoline.

So my money is on the war with Iran ending soon with an international diplomatic core telling the US to get out and stay out, as long as the Straits reopen. 

But we'll see...

UNUM

On The Use of Administrative Subpoenas

 We are hearing a lot these days about the use of administrative subpoenas. While in very specific and very limited cases defined by Congressional statutes, they are legal and binding, the uses they are being put to are unconstitutional and an illegal attempt to by-pass probable cause - the legal standard for issuing a judicial subpoena. This is the most authoritarian and frightening use of executive power I have seen to date. It allows, unchecked by due process, the seizing of private information, the detention of persons protected by 1st, 4th, 5th and 14th amendment rights (which apply to everyone occupying American space, not just citizens), and the subsequent "fruit of the poisonous tree" prosecutions using information obtained without probable cause.

Google released private information they had collected on a Cornell student journalist to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on the basis of an administrative warrant. Let me first say that ICE is not one of the agencies defined by statute to be able to issue administrative warrants. Administrative warrants can be used in controlled substances situation (which are carefully defined in the statutes), child protection, Presidential protection by the U.S. Marshall's Service and Inspectors General gathering information for an internal investigation. That's it. Now I am no lawyer, but that's all my investigations into administrative warrants uncovered. So Google released information they promised was private to the government on the basis of an illegal subpoena. They didn't even demand an judicial subpoena, the basis of which is probable cause. So Google (or Alphabet) joins the long list of tech megacorps to cave to the government...surprise.

Here's the 4th amendment:

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Please note the very specific reference to probable cause. Precedence in the U.S. has further required that the determination of probable cause is suited only to the judicial branch. A judge must hear the reasonable, specific evidence that supplies probable cause to believe a crime has been committed. Then and only then will the judge sign a subpoena in furtherance of gathering proof beyond a reasonable doubt. That is constitutional law in America. There is no place in the 4th amendment that allows any other process. Any other process, by Constitutional definition, is unreasonable and illegal.

So why is Google obeying administrative subpoenas? Why are administrative warrants being issued by ICE? Why, oh why, is the executive branch trying to end around the Constitution? And why the hell isn't Congress doing anything about it? Yet another point to remember come November. 

Let me assure my readers that should I fall victim to an administrative warrant or subpoena, if any of my family does, then I will exhaust every resource I can gather to not only fight it, but to hold the issuing party or parties accountable to Constitutional law. If Congress won't take care of the American people, we're gonna have to do it ourselves.

These are scary times. It is reasonable to be scared. It is also reasonable to be very, very angry. Our politicians and institutions have failed us. Our government seeks to whitewash our population and control our behavior, if not our thoughts. Doesn't that sound more like Afghanistan than America? The difference is, in America, we can still change it. Use your voice, your vote, your money and your time to insure that the Constitution isn't just an old piece of paper, that the ideals and protections guaranteed by the Constitution are real and meaningful to everyone.

I may not agree with you, hell, I probably don't, but I will fight for your right to disagree with me. Disagreement and contemplative discussion breeds understanding and compromise for a better society. An inclusive and multi-cultural society. And trust me, America has ALWAYS been a multi-cultural society. We need dissent and viewpoints that have different histories and cultures in order to improve the great nation we already have. We need different opinions and ideas that come from a diverse group of background and experiences. We need the ivory towers and the farm workers, the masons and the technicians, the physicist and the steel worker, the immigrant and the native-born. We need all of us, working together to form a more perfect union. And we do not need or want a government that seeks to limit that potential.

UNUM

On Islam and American Democracy

 I keep reading and seeing in mainstream media that Islamic beliefs are antithetical to American democracy, coming from people who should know better. I have heard it from people I work with, from people I'm sharing a beer with, from Congresspersons and Senators on both state and federal levels. Why? What is the basis for this claim? I do not understand how any rational person who has put in the effort can legitimately defend such a statement. Here's why:

Starting at the beginning, the first white people in what is now the United States came here for two reasons. The first was prima geniture, the inheritance of the first born son of all assets in an aristocratic family that was basically the law in Europe at the time. Subsequent sons came to America looking for land and wealth, but mostly in the southern half of what became the colonies; Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, etc. The pilgrims of American historical fame were religious radicals in their home countries; mostly staunch religious conservatives that the main religious institutions of the time found too extreme. They came to the northern colonies seeking freedom to practice their religion as they saw fit. They were religious outcasts from a religious and political system that was historically intertwined in Europe. Now, in all honesty, they chose to be outcasts and to seek religious freedom in the New World, but seek it here they did. And they found it.

The pilgrims were a conservative off-shoot of the English Puritans who faced persecution in England for their radical beliefs. They believed that the Church Of England was irreparably corrupt and sought to establish what they believed was "the true faith". They first went to Holland where freedom of religion was an established precedence, but Holland wasn't "English" enough, so they came to the New World.

The Pilgrims were religious zealots who repressed other beliefs, suppressed women and cast out anybody who didn't conform. They were a tiny minority of the mainstream Protestant movement in Europe.

This history bears remarkable similiarities to modern-day Islam. Both have mainstream, world-spanning traditions and cultures. Both have experienced schisms and survived divisions and upheavals. And for the most part, both espouse a doctrine on peace and uplifting of "the other". (I will admit, freely, that the Qu'ran dictates the killing of the infidel, but only after every attempt has been made to bring the infidel into the "true faith". The verses in the Old Testament and Psalms that are much worse are too numerous to cite here.) Both have radical, and sometimes dangerous, off-shoots.  

What makes radical Islam different from radical Christianity is that they were more successful at getting our attention. 9-11 was a incredible tragedy and sad, hopeless gesture carried out by a radical off-shoot of Islam. (I would argue that it was more politically motivated than religious, but that's another discussion.) In point of historical fact, Muslims and Christians have been killing each other for millennia. What makes it different today? Nothing. It is exactly the same rationale that has been used by both sides since the Crusades. U.S. Senators openly and publicly stating Islam has no place in America. Ayatollahs dictating "Death to America". Why? Because the other side is an easy target and deflects from internal issues that those in power do not want to have the attention of their populous. Exactly the reasons behind the reasons the Catholic church sanctioned the Crusades. 

Your Muslim neighbors are here for exactly the same reasons that the first colonists came to America; hopes of financial betterment and the ability to enjoy freedoms they could not get in their homes. They have no desire to threaten or destroy America. Hell, they love this country in more demonstrable ways than most native Americans do. They invest and start businesses, they spend their money in local communities and support them through their efforts, their time and their money. They raise their children with the incredible hope that their children's lives will be better than their own. And here's the kicker - their God is the same God as the Christian God. I'll say that again. The God of Islam is the same God that the Christians worship. They enjoy the same history and traditions up until Mohammed and Ali brought Islam to the world. Islam even recognizes Christ as a prophet. 

So why are radical Islamist so different from Jim Jordan or Timothy McVeigh? The Branch Davidians? The Uni-bomber?  The Army of God? The Tulsa Massacre? On and on...

To my Christian brethren: Matthew 7:5, John 8:7

Would you cast out or demonize Methodists because they are not Southern Baptists? Or Jewish? Or Catholic?

As-salamu-alaykum. Shalom. Peace be with you.

UNUM

On the Founders and Today's Reality

 I have just re-read Federalist Paper No. 10. It was published in New York in 1787. That was 239 years ago, before the Constitution was ratified. If you think that the founders did not foresee our current state of political affairs, I encourage you to read what James Madison had to say. Not only did he foresee it, he foresaw it happening over and over again (as it has and will). He also outlines its causes, its results and its cures. To date, it fits perfectly with our national history. He describes with absolute clarity what happens, how it happens, and why it happens. He also describes what must be done to remedy tyranny.

This may sound silly, but it gives me immeasurable hope. We've been in political quagmires before, we'll be in them again. Trump is not the first, nor the last, executive to challenge the Constitution. While it may shake, it will not shatter because the Founders knew this would happen and planned for it in the Constitution. 

They knew it would never be a perfect Republic, but they laid the foundation to make it incrementally better. They planned for the pitfalls of property and privilege. Madison describes, to a "T" what we are seeing in today's American society. He knew how it would work and how the pendulum of society would swing. Its absolutely amazing how clairvoyant he was. All this to say, the Constitution will survive, if and only if, we, the people decide it must. And I have no doubt whatsoever that the vast majority of Americans, regardless of political ideology, believe that it must.

I encourage you to read Federalist Paper No. 10 and see for yourselves. Then, go vote in your local primaries as you see fit. Be informed, be thoughtful and vote in your own self-interest - as it was and is intended. 

UNUM

On No Kings Day and The Game of Numbers

 I have a grandson.

I am an older, retired white man in an historically rather conservative suburb district in Texas. I consider myself to be somewhat insulated from the upheavals we have all witnessed in our communities. I have not seen ICE in my community, although they are in the major urban areas that my community is outside of. I am financially solid, at least for the foreseeable future and can afford to sit out any disturbances or uprisings that occur around me and my family...I think.

But as I said, I have a grandson. He deserve to be able to at least reach my current situation, if he affords himself of the opportunities that were there for me. He deserves to be able to live in an urban center where the jobs and housing are amply available. He deserves to live a life free from fear of his government and his neighbors. He deserves whatever society and institutions I can leave for him in order that these things come to be in his life. I also believe that this is not currently the situation.

Therefore, I am going to raise my voice outside this largely unnoticed blog and join in the next No Kings rally and join my voice with others to peacefully protest that this is not the objective of our current government. As I have pointed out, I am not doing this for myself, entirely. To date, I have sat behind my laptop and written blogs and e-mailed my Congressman and generally groused about the state of affairs. I have joined RepresentUs, a grass roots organization to fight government corruption, but have not participated in any of their phone banks or other activities. I have largely sat back, watched the news and bitched at a very low key level.

But, I have a grandson.

I find that my level of participation in using my voice to be less than necessary to help my grandson be able to live the life he deserves at least the chance to live. It has suddenly, sadly and somewhat painfully become very, very personal.  I can no longer justify to myself my relatively safe actions. I am going to become more public in my grievances. I am going to join with others in expressing my opinion on the state of affairs and the failure of our institutions to protect our rights, our prosperity and our lives.

I am making plans to join, in my community, the next No Kings rally on March 28th. I will lend my voice to the cry, publicly. I am taking observer training, so that I can peacefully and constitutionally observe and record the actions of my government. I am committing to become more involved and active so that I can do what any parent or grandparent wants to do for their family - pass on a better world.

This is not a political decision. I would commit to this action no matter who was in office. I do not care about the political viewpoints of fellow protesters. It is not my objective in this to change my neighbors minds about how to change policy so that the most good is done for the most people. It is my objective to end the harm being done in this moment and to show those in power where the true power lies. It lies with people like me who will overcome their fear and speak out. 

And finally, it lies with the next generation of Americans, born here or not. They deserve a chance to build a better world than we left them.

So, no matter your political, social or economic standing, I invite you to join me on March 28th to attempt to provide that opportunity to our children and grandchildren and hopefully their children. Raise your voice, peacefully, and let's make ourselves heard. I have posted the link to the No Kings rally below. Lend your voice, your hope and your determination, please.

For my grandson's sake.

https://www.nokings.org/#signup

An Open Letter To Congress

 Let me first tell of who I am and where I come from to give some background to why I am going to say the things I am going to say. I am a lifelong Texan born and raised in Texas, a 3rd generation native Austinite. I am now considered to be old, among the last of the boomers. I am white, publicly educated, and hold no degrees. I did attend college completing two years of study in various institutions of higher learning, discovering a deep love of history and specifically American political history concerning the Revolutionary war and The Founding. I am deeply read in those areas for a layman, I believe, having read biographies on Jefferson, Hamilton and other founders as well as The Federalist Papers, Democracy in America, and more. I know from those readings the reasons our form of government is called an experiment in democracy and that it has been challenged many, many times before.

I also know that democracy survived those challenges, usually with the staunch help of fearless institutions. The press, the church ..and the U.S. Congress. It is Congress' constitutionally defined obligation to hold the executive and the judicial branches of our government in check. They have failed in the past and are failing now, due to, as far as I can tell loyalty to their party and/or to their donors. Both of these failures now deserve the intimate attentions of the American people.

I have communicated my questions as to when my representatives will be exercising this power to end the current executive overreaches we are experiencing in real time. I have yet to receive responses from either of my Senators, and my Representative sent back what was basically a from letter and political pablum, but at least he replied to his constituent. 

Here's what I expect from my representatives: full and impartial investigations into crimes and misdemeanors committed by the executive branch, and if found to have been knowingly and criminally committed, impeachment proceedings. Find the truth then act on it as if they weren't politicians in your party. You owe them no loyalty. Your service belongs to me and your other constituents. If you will not serve us, then I will actively and with every resource I possess work to put you out of office. And while I do not have the financial capabilities some of your donors do, I do have and maintain a vast network of friends, family and contacts within my community. I will be spreading the word.

However, I do not believe that my attempts to unseat my representatives who have chosen not to represent us will truly change the political landscape. I do know of one power that, since the Revolution, has not been fully tested. And I believe it is time. I believe that, we the people need to demand that Congress do its job and protect and defend America against all enemies, both foreign....and particularly, domestic. To demand that government cease and desist from unconstitutional behaviors, i.e.; illegal searches and seizures, use of undo force, unconstitutional detentions, etc., etc.

And before you blow me off as a starry-eyed, bleeding-heart liberal, consider this:

    What if it was your mother or father being dragged out into the cold without due process and no probable cause? What if your son was driving home from school and was stopped, his car severely damaged and he is dragged out of his car , handcuffed and disappeared? Even if you don't think these things can happen to you or your family, take a minute and imagine it. Because it is happening in cities and communities all over the country to people just like you and I. And I can promise you beyond any reasonable doubt, that if it can happen to them, you could most definitely be next. Anyone who understands history knows that to be true.

So I am calling on Congress do do its duty to their constituents. Do it, Senators and Representatives, or not as you see fit, But understand that we will be watching like you've never been watched before and you will answer to the people on election day.

And I am calling on the people to do the watching. Call, write, email or hell, send up smoke signals to your elected representative and demand that they do their jobs. Let me also promise that a couple of hundred communications a day to a Congressional office that all basically say the same thing will definitely get attention. So do your duty to your country and communicate your dissatisfaction to your representatives. Vote, every single time there's an election. Listen to the campaigns and vote your conscience, but hold 'em to it. You are the boss, here. Act like it.

On Renee Good

 My Fellow Americans:

First let me say that my heart goes out to Ms. Good's family and children, her friend, her community and to the city of Minneapolis. I am truly sorry for your loss. 

At this particular time and in this particular place, I could care less what your politics are. What happened to Ms. Ross is criminal, no matter who says otherwise. What will cure the anger and fear that, in my opinion, this is supposed to instill? Accountability.

At this writing, the FBI has excluded the BCA (Minnesota's state investigative agency) from Federal evidence gathered during the federal investigation and tried to claim sole jurisdiction in any investigation. The Dept. of Homeland security labeled the woman a domestic terrorist before any investigation had had a chance to assess any evidence. J. D, Vance states its a left wing conspiracy and that she was radicalized, again before any evidence had been assessed.

Let me encourage you to watch the videos. While they are not by any means conclusive, they damn sure show that DHS and Vance are lying. They are telling the American people, all the American people, that what they see isn't real. One of the videos is from the shooting officer's body cam. Is that the result of some politically motivated conspiracy?

Here  are the real questions: Why would these people want to lie about this? What's at stake? Who is injured by the truth? Why is it so important that our government would so obviously lie to us about the death of an American citizen who was breaking no laws?

Let me tell you how I feel. I am angry. I am so angry that I am posting this on a public forum where it could conceivably cost me my freedom or my life. And I am afraid. If an unarmed mother of three can be shot in the streets of her community for no other reason than she bruised an officer's ego, then it can happen to me, a member of my family,  a member of my community or anyone. 

Let me say that again. IF IT CAN HAPPEN TO HER IT CAN HAPPEN TO ANYONE.

That, in a very real and concrete way, means it can happen to you. The officer didn't ask what her political affiliation was or if she was a Christian, he just shot her three times, killing her instantly. 

If you are not willing to live with the idea of getting shot for no reason, then contact your government representatives. Call, write, email. text or all of the previous to your Congressman, your Senator, both Federal and State.  Demand that they provide transparent accountability and let the chips fall where they may. Withhold campaign contributions and urge your neighbors not to vote for those that refuse to do so. Your government is supposed to work for you, not kill you because it can. If you need help finding out how to contact your representatives, I'll link the federal information below. Your state should have a website with all representative listed and their contact information. Trust me, if they get enough calls, emails, letters, etc., they will pay attention.

But the time for silence is over. Make those calls! Write those emails. Be concise and curt in exactly what you expect. Its obviously not a game anymore. Demand your rights and life be protected from your government. Your life may depend on it.

https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative

https://www.congress.gov/contact-us